Wellesley Real Estate Market Report
Single-Family Homes | 2024–2025 Review & Outlook
Prepared by Steve & Nicole Connolly, Wellesley Real Estate Advisors
Market Overview
This 2024–2025 Wellesley Market Report examines weekly MLS single-family inventory trends and transaction activity in Wellesley, Massachusetts. While national housing headlines continue to focus on interest rates and shifting affordability, local market conditions in Wellesley remain driven by a very different force: structural supply constraints combined with sustained buyer demand.
Over the past two years, Wellesley’s active single-family inventory has remained within a tight historical band of approximately 14 to 69 homes, reinforcing the town’s long-standing position as one of Greater Boston’s most supply-constrained residential markets.
Massachusetts & Greater Boston Economic Context
Massachusetts continues to benefit from:
A diversified professional economy
Strong education and healthcare sectors
A resilient technology and life sciences presence
Steady population inflow to Greater Boston
Despite broader affordability pressures across the region, demand for high-quality suburban housing near Boston remains exceptionally strong. Wellesley, with its nationally ranked schools, commuter rail access, and established neighborhoods, continues to attract:
Corporate and academic relocators
Move-up families within MetroWest
Long-term homeowners trading within town
Wellesley – Single-Family Homes (2024–2025)
Inventory Levels & Seasonal Patterns
As of the most recent week ending November 28, 2025, Wellesley has:
32 active single-family homes on the market
This level is below the current 4-week rolling average (37.8 homes)
4 more homes than the same week last year, reflecting slight year-over-year expansion, yet still historically tight supply
Seasonal inventory trends continue to follow a highly consistent pattern:
Annual Low: 14 homes (early January 2025)
Annual Peak: 69 homes (late May 2025)
The familiar Wellesley cycle remains intact:
Inventory expands rapidly during the spring listing season
Homes move under agreement quickly, preventing prolonged oversupply
Inventory contracts from late summer through year-end
Even at peak levels, Wellesley inventory remains far below what economists would consider a balanced market for a town of this size.
New Listings vs. Absorption
Over the most recent 12 weeks:
Average new listings: ~6.0 homes per week
Average homes absorbed (UAG + withdrawn): ~7.3 homes per week
This near equilibrium between supply entering the market and homes exiting it reflects:
A stable but competitive market environment
Continued buyer responsiveness to new inventory
Strong pricing support across well-positioned properties
When absorption matches or exceeds new listings, inventory remains compressed — preventing downward pressure on values.
Absorption Rates & Market Velocity
The weekly absorption rate — measuring how quickly active inventory is converted to pending or removed status — has averaged:
~14.1% per week
Equivalent to 60%+ per month
For context, most economists define a “balanced market” as:
15–20% absorption per month
Wellesley continues to operate at three times that level, confirming:
Rapid buyer decision-making
Limited negotiation windows
Multiple-offer environments on appropriately priced homes
Even when inventory temporarily expanded during spring 2025, absorption remained robust — preventing any sustained softening in market conditions.
Structural Undersupply Remains the Dominant Market Force
Wellesley’s long-term inventory compression is driven by:
Limited remaining buildable lots
Zoning constraints
Strong homeowner tenure
Modest speculative development relative to demand
High replacement construction costs
Unlike many suburban markets that can expand outward through new subdivisions, Wellesley’s growth is restrained by geography and development regulations. This creates persistent structural scarcity, which continues to stabilize values during broader economic shifts.
Implications for Home Prices
Pricing behavior in Wellesley continues to remain highly segmented by price point and property condition:
Homes under $2.5M experience the strongest competition
Turnkey properties command the fastest absorption
Renovated and new construction homes attract deep buyer pools
Homes requiring significant capital improvements remain more price-sensitive
Well-positioned homes continue to sell efficiently with minimal market resistance, while pricing misalignment is quickly exposed by today’s data-savvy buyers.
What This Means for Buyers
Expect limited selection throughout most of the year
Spring and early fall offer the best opportunity for inventory expansion
Preparation is critical:
Strong financing
Clear offer strategy
Flexible timing and contingencies
Data-driven entry points create significant advantages
What This Means for Sellers
Inventory remains firmly below long-term balanced levels
Well-priced homes continue to sell quickly
Buyers are active but selective — presentation and pricing discipline matter
Optimal listing windows remain:
Early spring
Early fall
Thoughtful timing combined with strategic positioning continues to produce exceptional outcomes.
Conclusion
The 2024–2025 Wellesley single-family market remains defined by:
Persistent structural undersupply
Strong absorption
Highly predictable seasonal cycles
Continued buyer demand driven by schools, proximity to Boston, and long-term community appeal
Despite higher interest rate volatility nationwide, Wellesley continues to function as a highly resilient, fundamentally sound residential market.
