📊 What This Inventory Dashboard Tells Us About the Wellesley Market (2024–2025)

Tracking weekly single-family inventory gives one of the clearest signals of market pressure in Wellesley — and this dashboard makes the trend unmistakable. Over the last two years, the number of active SF homes in town has moved within a relatively tight band of 14 to 69 homes, reflecting both ongoing buyer demand and the chronic lack of supply that defines most high-end Boston suburbs.

1️⃣ Current Inventory Remains Well Below Spring Peaks

As of the latest week ending Nov 21, 2025, Wellesley has 35 active single-family homes on the market. That’s:

• ~6 homes below the recent 4-week average

• 2 fewer homes than the same week last year

This shows the market is tightening into year-end, with fewer options for buyers heading into the winter season.

2️⃣ Inventory Cycles Are Predictable — But Low Relative to Demand

Looking at month-by-month inventory:

• The low point was 14 homes in early January (2025-01-03).

• The high point reached 69 homes in late May (2025-05-30).

This follows a classic Wellesley pattern:

• Inventory expands during spring listing season

• Shrinks quickly as homes go under agreement

• Stays low from late summer → holidays

The consistency of this cycle signals strong, steady buyer demand across price points.

3️⃣ New Listings vs Absorption Are Almost Perfectly Balanced

On average (last 12 weeks):

• 7.4 new listings/week

• 7.5 homes absorbed/week (UAG + withdrawn/expired)

When inbound and outbound flow are nearly equal, it means:

✔ Inventory is holding steady
✔ Demand is matching new supply
✔ Prices remain supported

This balanced flow is one of the biggest indicators that Wellesley is still a very healthy, competitive market.

4️⃣ Absorption Rates Confirm a Strong Market

The absorption rate — the share of available inventory that goes under agreement each month — has averaged:

~14.6% per week

or

~60–65% per month

That’s well above what economists consider a “balanced market” (typically 15–20% per month, not per week).

This is why we continue seeing:

• Quick contracts

• Limited negotiation windows

• Multiple-offer conditions on well-priced homes

Even when inventory rose in spring, absorption stayed high — keeping the market from softening.

5️⃣ Big Picture: Wellesley Is Still Inventory-Constrained

Zooming out:

• The town’s inventory rarely exceeds 40–50 homes except in peak season.

• Most weeks sit between 20–35 homes, which is extremely low for a town of this size.

• Buyer demand remains persistent, driven by relocators, local move-up buyers, and the consistent pull of Wellesley schools and proximity to Boston.

This is why home values remain stable even when rates fluctuate.

📌 What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers

• Expect tight competition, especially under $2.5M.

• The best opportunities appear at seasonal inflection points—early spring and late summer.

• Being prepared (pre-approval, timing, flexibility) creates massive advantages.

Sellers

• Low inventory means well-priced homes are still moving quickly.

• Strategic pricing matters: buyers are active, but selective.

• Listing in early spring or early fall typically captures the highest absorption.

Relocators

• Wellesley remains one of the most supply-constrained markets in Greater Boston.

• Weekly inventory tracking is one of the best ways to understand timing and competition levels.